私人汽车拥有率预测模型综述

目前预测私人汽车拥有率的方法主要有集合模型和非集合模型两类,前者又可以细分为有饱和水平限制和没有饱和水平限制两种。这两种方法的应用范围和所要求的数据各不相同,各有优缺点。集合方法多用于宏观政策分析或远期预测,非集合方法多用于微观政策分析或短期预测,数据要求比较高。

Review on Methodology of Private Vehicle Ownership Forecast Model

There are basically two kinds of methodologies to forecast ownership of private vehicle: aggre-gate and disaggregate model. Aggregate ones could be further divided into models with and without limitation onsaturation. Both application scope and data required by these two kinds of models are different,as well theiradvantages and disadvantages. The aggregate model is often used for macro-policy analysis of long-term forecastand the later one usually for microanalysis and short-term forecast. The disaggregate model requires more data.