Quantitative lifecycle risk analysis of the development of a just-in-time transportation network system

The automotive manufacturing industry is under financial pressure due to massive cost structure, relatively small scale operation and strong global competition. In order to improve their operational cost efficiency, companies have adopt lean principles in all their manufacturing activities, in particular, just-in-time supply chain. However, a consequence of this policy makes the transportation network from the local supply chain time critical. This paper uses an enterprise system model integrated with a quantitative method to study a manufacturing company’s logistics system re-development project. The quantitative risk analysis examines the project’s systems engineering management plan to see if it is sufficiently to mitigate risks in design, monitoring and validation of the project’s lifecycle processes. The computed risk profile shows a trend of decreasing risk and suggests areas of improvement in the systems engineering plan to ensure greater probability of success. The research assumes a single risk profile for the supply chain. Research is continuing in expanding to more accurate risk profile of the project when partners of the supply chain have individual profiles.