从石油峰值论到石油枯竭论

对石油产量的变化和峰值的预测是有前提的,预测者或者是面对简单的油田,且其储量和开发方式无大变化,或者是限定储产量的变化速度和最大可探明储量等。对基本符合这些限定的"封闭系统",预测的成果可大致符合实际情况。而对不断开拓新区新领域、发现新油田和不断革新采油工艺提高采收率的"开放系统",预测结果多会有很大(甚至定性)的误导作用。此外,还须考虑到石油生产受社会因素的影响甚大。峰值论的鼻祖Hubbert 1956年预测美国1969-1971年石油产量达到峰值时恰逢油田及开发方式变化不大的简单情况,他言中了。而其他对世界石油峰值的预测都把复杂情况简单化,看不到石油在发展中实施着战术和战略接替,因而失败了。虽然近20年来世界石油的储产量一直为上升趋势,但石油峰值论和枯竭论等言论在媒体炒作下却流传甚广,导致公众对石油供应安全甚为恐慌,成了高油价的幕后推手之一。

Discussion on oil peak and oil depletion

The predictions of petroleum production change and peak rely on a precondition that the reserves and development methods are relatively unchanged, or the change rate of oil production and the maximum proved reserves are fairly prescribed. The estimation might be reliable in some “closed systems” with the above-mentioned features. However, for some “open systems” characterized with every unpredictable possibility, these estimations could be inaccurate or even misleading. In addition, the impact of social factors on petroleum production should also be considered in the application of the estimation. Hubbert, who proposed the production peak theory, was lucky enough to correctly predict America’s production peak of 1969-1971 peoriod in 1956 when the oil situation was much simpler than that of present days. Meanwhile, other estimations about the production peak were failed due to their blindness to the ever-changing technologies and environment of the petroleum industry. The irony is that, quite contrary to the production peak and depletion theories, the petroleum production has always been increasing during the recent 20 years. However, these theories were widespread through media and induced concerns over petroleum supply security. Thus, those served as one of the reasons for pushing sky-high oil price.