| 基于小波神经网络的风速预测及置信区间估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨洪深,温阳东.基于小波神经网络的风速预测及置信区间估计[J].安徽机电学院学报,2012(3):65-68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨洪深 温阳东 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]铜陵学院电气工程系,安徽铜陵244000 [2]合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,安徽合肥230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省高校自然科学基金资助项目（kj20122412） |
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| 摘 要： | 小波神经网络是在小波变换理论和人工神经网络的基础上建立的一种新型网络模型，综合了两者的优点，克服了BP神经网络易陷入局部极小点和训练速度慢的缺点．本文建立了小波神经网络模型，采用最陡梯度下降法训练网络，将该网络用于对风电场小时风速的预测，并对预测置信区间进行计算．预测结果表明小波神经网络在训练速度和预测精度方面均优于BP神经网络．
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| 关 键 词： | 风速预测 小波神经网络 置信区间 预测精度 |
Forecasting of wind speed and estimation of confidence interval based on wavelet neural network |
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| YANG Hong-shen,WEN Yang-dong.Forecasting of wind speed and estimation of confidence interval based on wavelet neural network[J].Journal of Anhui Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,2012(3):65-68. |
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| Authors: | YANG Hong-shen WEN Yang-dong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Dept. of Elec. Engn. , Tongling University, Tongling 244000, China ; 2. Coll. of Elee. ＆ Auto. Engn. , Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009 ,China) |
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| Abstract: | Abstract.The wavelet neural network （WNN） is a new model based on wavelet theory and artificial neural net- work. It combines the advantages of those two theories and overcomes the shortcomings that BP neural network is easy to get into a local minimum point and reduce the train speed. The WNN model is established and the steep gradient descent method is used to train network. The WNN is applied to predicting hourly wind speed of wind power plant and confidence interval is calculated also. The forecast results indicate that the WNN proposed in the article is better than BP network in train speed and forecast accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Wind speed forecasting Wavelet neural network Confidence interval Forecast accuracy |
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