变化环境下非一致性年径流序列的水文频率计算原理

由于受频繁人类活动和气候变化的影响,用于水资源评价计算的天然年径流量序列失去了一致性.为了适应变化环境对水文频率计算的要求,提出了基于时间序列分析的非一致性年径流序列的水文频率计算原理,包括假设前提和一般方法.该方法假设非一致性水文序列由相对一致的随机性成分和非一致的确定性成分两部分组成,采用成因分析法与统计分析法分别对确定性成分和随机性成分进行识别与检验,并对确定性成分进行拟合计算,对随机性成分进行频率计算;根据时间序列分析的分解与合成理论,将确定性的预测值和随机性的设计值进行合成,得到过去、现在和未来不同时期合成序列的频率分布.

Hydrological frequency calculation principle of inconsistent annual runoff series under Changing environments

Owing to the effects of frequent human activities and climate change,the natural annual runoff series for water resources evaluation calculation lost their consistency.In order to adapt to a changing environment demand for hydrological frequency calculation,the hydrological frequency calculation principle of inconsistent annual runoff series was proposed based on time series analysis,including an assumption precondition and a general method.In this method,on the assumption that inconsistent annual runoff series were composed of relatively consistent random component and inconsistent deterministic component;firstly the random component and deterministic component were identified and tested by(using) genetic analysis method and statistic analysis method;and the fitting calculation of deterministic component and the frequency calculation of random component were made separately;secondly according to the theory of decomposition and composition in time series analysis,the deterministic forecasting value and stochastic design value were synthesized;and the past and present as well as future frequency distributions were gained.