| 基于预测模型库关联优化的电力负荷组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨实俊,牛东晓.基于预测模型库关联优化的电力负荷组合预测模型[J].华北电力大学学报,2005,32(1):42-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨实俊 牛东晓 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学,工商管理学院,河北,保定,071003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50077007)
华北电力大学重大项目预研基金资助项目. |
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| 摘 要： | 针对中长期电力负荷同时具有增长性和波动性的二重趋势,基于预测模型库关联优化的电力负荷组合预测模型理论,首先对GM(1,1)模型进行改进,引入修正系数,使得原始序列与新预测值的误差在最小二乘意义下达到最小。然后建立模型库,通过灰色关联分析选取两个关联度最大的预测模型,再对这两个预测模型进行优化组合,得到最优模型。通过实例验证,基于预测模型库关联优化的电力负荷组合预测模型达到了满意的预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 模型库 优化组合 灰色关联分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-2691(2005)01-0042-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年8月31日 |
Model of forecasting power load based on optimized combination of model library |
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| YANG Shi-jun,NIU Dong-xiao.Model of forecasting power load based on optimized combination of model library[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University,2005,32(1):42-44. |
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| Authors: | YANG Shi-jun NIU Dong-xiao |
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| Abstract: | Medium and long term load of power system has two layer trend of increscent and fluctuant at the same time. According to the theory of forecasting power load based on optimized combination of model library, the GM (1,1) mode is improved by introducing an amendatory coefficient that can reduce the error for the original with the new forecasting data tend to minimal. With the established model library, the optimized model is obtained based on grey relation analysis and optimized combination. The measurement data are in general agreement with predicted results. |
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| Keywords: | power load model library optimized combination grey relation analysis |
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