电力系统短期负荷预测模型研究

给出电力系统短期负荷预测的两种模型——变差分析模型和年度分解模型。变差分析模型将负荷分解为基准值、年度变差、月份变差以及随机变差，通过对其分别估计便可得到负荷的预测值；年度分解法先通过预测年度负荷，再预测每月的负荷贡献率，即可得到负荷预测值。实例分析表明，这两种方法都是有效的、实用的

RESEARCH OF SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING MODELS OF POWER SYSTEM

Two models for load forecasting of power system, i.e., the difference analysis model and year\|decompose model, are presented. Difference analysis model is such a model which decomposes the load to basic value, year\|difference, month\|difference and stochastic\|difference. The forecasting value of load is acquired after estimating the above four parts. Year\|decompose model is such a model which gives the monthly forecasting value according to the yearly load forecasting value and monthly load contributing rate. A practical example shows the models are effective and available.