京津冀地区不同水资源配置方式的影响比较:基于社会核算矩阵

为了缓解京津冀地区水资源短缺状况，政府试图改变三地分散配置水资源的原有模式，建立京津冀水资源统一配置平台。通过编制基于水生产和供应业的京津冀细化社会核算矩阵，并利用乘数分解和结构化路径分析方法，揭示并比较了京津冀2种水资源配置模式下水生产供应部门变动对其他部门的经济影响和具体的作用路径。研究表明，统一配置后北京水生产供应业的带动作用下降，但注入资金在经济体系中的循环比重增加；天津、河北水生产供应业的带动作用上升，生产部门之间的直接联系增强，同时天津居民资本收入的比重提升。总体上，采取统一配置模式对京津冀产业联系有积极影响，因此建议京津冀地区建立和完善跨区域的水资源配置机制，统筹各类水源，推进京津冀协同发展。

COMPARISON OF WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION METHODS AMONG BEIJING TIANJIN HEBEI BASED ON SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX

In order to mitigate the shortage of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, government attempts to change the traditional decentralized water resource allocation model into a unified platform. This paper, by making a detailed social accounting matrix of water production and supply in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, uses multiplier analysis and structured path analysis to compare their economic influence and path changes if water production and supply changes. After unified allocation, Beijing's driving force of water production and supply is declining, but there is a rise in capital circulation proportion; Tianjin and Hebei's driving force is rising with an increasing linkage in production departments, and Tianjin's residents' capital income also rises. That means the unified mode has a positive influence on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei's water industry. This paper suggests establishing and optimizing trans-region water resource allocation mechanism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for a co-integrated development.