基于工商协同的卷烟月度投放量预测模型

为准确预测卷烟月度投放量,采用时间序列模型中的季节变动预测法,根据实际情况改进算法,设定了“下月日均销量”和“目标月存销比”这两个定量调控预测手段,通过存销比管理,建立了卷烟月度投放量预测模型。实证检验表明该模型能够进行较为准确的月度预测,可以据此在工商协同营销系统中创新、优化工商月度网上配货工作。 

Monthly cigarette supply forecasting model based on coodination of producdtion and marketing

This paper established a monthly cigarette supply forecasting model to achieve good balance between manufacturing and sales so as to make market-oriented plans. Time series method was used to determine commercial sales forecast model. An innovative algorithm based on seasonal variation forecast method, and two quantitative regulatory forecasting measures were designed. Monthly cigarette supply amount was determined by inventory-to-sales ratio management. Compared with other models the model proved to have good accuracy and consistency. It could synchronized production and sale well and optimize goods distribution and delivery.