| 基于GM（1，1）校正模型的转折性电力负荷特性预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王亚雄,贺文武.基于GM（1，1）校正模型的转折性电力负荷特性预测[J].电工标准与质量,2004,19(3):35-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王亚雄 贺文武 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学统计学系，湖南大学统计学系 湖南长沙 410079，湖南长沙 410079 |
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| 摘 要： | 电力负荷系统是典型的灰色系统，电力负荷特性指标的预测具有直接的经济意义．讨论了当预测对象系统存在转折性变化时，灰色预测校正模型在此方面的有效应用．该模型具有充分利用历史信息而且短期预测精度高的优点．
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 转折性变化 校正模型 后验差检验 |
Load Characteristics Forcasting with Turning Point Based on a GM(1,1) Correcting Model |
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| WANG Ya-xiong,HE Wen-wu.Load Characteristics Forcasting with Turning Point Based on a GM(1,1) Correcting Model[J].Journal of Changsha University of Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2004,19(3):35-37. |
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| Authors: | WANG Ya-xiong HE Wen-wu |
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| Abstract: | Electric load system is a typical grey system and the forecast for the inder of electric load characteristics has a directly economical meaning.The application of the grey forecast adjustment-model to electric load is discussed when the system has the turning point. The new model has a advantage of being able to utilize the history information and to make the high precision short-term load forcasting. |
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| Keywords: | gregtheory turning point adjustment model posterior-variance-test |
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