海河流域大清河系暴雨中心移植和地区洪水组成分析

近年来极端天气事件频发，暴雨洪涝灾害的突发性、极端性愈发显著，海河流域大部分区域多年未经特大洪水检验，为分析未来可能发生极端暴雨洪水的致灾情况，开展暴雨中心预测及可能的地区洪水组成分析十分必要。研究以多年未发生极端暴雨洪水的大清河系为对象，基于研究区域103个雨量站降水数据，预测了河系暴雨中心可能位置，以“63·8”暴雨分布为参照，开展暴雨中心移植及地区洪水组成分析。结果表明：大清河系特大暴雨中心位置较为稳定，可能的暴雨中心位置海拔高度主要介于100~600 m之间；在相同雨量条件下，暴雨中心位于水库下游山区附近（“63·8”）时，产生洪水总量相对较大，暴雨中心位于平原地区附近时相对较小，且暴雨中心位置的变化对地区洪水组成的影响显著。

Transplantation of rainstorm center and regional flood composition in the Daqing River of Haihe River Basin

In recent years, extreme weather events have been frequent, and the suddenness and extremeness of flood disasters caused by rainstorms have become more and more significant. Most areas in Haihe River Basin have not experienced extreme floods for decades. To be well prepared for the disaster of extreme flood that might happen in this area in the future, it is necessary to carry out the prediction of rainstorm center and the analysis of possible regional flood composition. Taking the Daqing River as the study area, which is unafflicted by extreme floods for many years, we predicted the possible location of the rainstorm center of the river system, based on the precipitation data of 103 rainfall stations in the study area, and then carried out the transplantation of the rainstorm center and the analysis of regional flood composition, with the distribution of rainstorm “63·8” as the reference. The results indicates that the rainstorm center is relatively fixed in Daqing river, which is likely located at the altitude between 100 and 600 m. Under the same precipitation condition, when the rainstorm center is located near the mountainous area downstream of the reservoir (which is the case for “63·8”), the total volume of flood is relatively large; when the rainstorm center is located near the plain area, the total flood volume is small, and the change of the rainstorm center location has a significant impact on the regional flood composition.