基于MRAS证据权重法的西昆仑玛尔坎苏地区锰矿床成矿预测

西昆仑玛尔坎苏地区是中国重要的锰矿资源基地，目前区内仍不断有新的锰矿点被报道，已发现多个大中型锰矿床。该地区锰矿床为海相沉积型矿床，赋矿层位为上石炭统喀拉阿特河组(C₂k)与下二叠统玛尔坎雀库塞山组(P₁m)。本文在总结玛尔坎苏地区锰矿床成矿规律的基础上，基于MRAS证据权重法，重建了该地区的锰矿床找矿模型。提取并构置了地层、遥感、锰化探异常3个预测要素作为证据因子。(1)地层信息证据因子：上石炭统喀拉阿特河组(C₂k)碳酸盐岩与下二叠统玛尔坎雀库塞山组(P₁m);(2)遥感证据因子：铁染异常区及羟基异常区；(3)化探证据因子：锰单元素化探异常区域。根据后验概率值圈定三级找矿有利靶区7处，并对找矿靶区进行了验证。通过圈定有利区，为下步找矿新突破提供了新的借鉴。

Metallogenic prediction of manganese deposits with weighting of evidence based on MRAS in Maerkansu area，West Kunlun

The Malkansu area of West Kunlun is an important manganese resource base in China. At present， new manganese deposits are still reported in the area， and several large and medium-sized manganese deposits have been discovered. The manganese deposit in this area is a Marine sedimentary deposit， and the ore-bearing horizon is the Upper Carboniferous Kalaathe Formation （C₂k） and the Lower Permian Maerkanqikusayshan Formation （P₁m）. On the basis of summarizing the metallogenic regularity of manganese deposits in Malkansu area， this paper rebuilds the metallogenic model of manganese deposits in this area based on MRAS evidence weight method. Three prediction factors of formation， remote sensing and manganese geochemical anomaly were extracted and constructed as evidence factors. （1） Stratigraphic information evidence factors： Upper Carboniferous Karaat River Formation （C₂k） carbonate rocks and Lower Permian Marcanchikuseshan Formation （P₁m）； （2） Remote sensing evidence factors： abnormal areas of iron stain and hydroxyl group； （3） Geochemical evidence factor： manganese single element geochemical anomaly area. According to the posterior probability value， 7 favorable targets of tertiary prospecting were delineated， and the prospecting targets were verified. By delineating favorable areas， it provides a new reference for the next breakthrough in prospecting.