Microeconomic impacts of investments in high speed trains in Spain

In this paper, we analyze the effects of new high-speed trains (HST) on passengers’ mobility in Spain. The construction of several new HST lines is planned in the Transport Infrastructure Masterplan of the Spanish Ministry of Transport and Public Works (MOTPW) for the period 2000–2010, and they are expected to cause a major change in the transport sector. Our objectives are twofold: firstly, we estimate the modal split (market shares of air, rail, bus and private car) in the equilibria induced by the new high speed lines; and secondly we calculate the number of passengers for these new HST services, in order to evaluate the revitalization of railways in the horizon 2010. Data stem from a mobility survey carried out by the MOTPW. A gravity model is estimated to forecast passenger flows between Spanish provinces in 2010, and we also estimate a multinomial logit model to calibrate passengers’ choice of transport mode. Results indicate that the impacts of new HST services will vary across routes, and they depend on the spatial location of the new routes.