防洪减灾中的多目标风险决策优化模型

讨论洪水预报、警报系统与防洪工程措施结合时，不同洪水预见期、预报精度、人们对警报的反应等情况下洪泛区内的洪灾损失计算。建立了防洪减灾中的多目标风险决策优化模型，该模型的目标函数选用投资费用最小化，防洪经济效益最大化及风险最小，其目的是充分利用水库防洪库容及其所有的防洪工程和非工程措施，尽可能地减轻洪泛区的洪灾损失。

Optimum Multiobjective Risk Decision Model in Flood Control and Hazard Mitigation

This paper discusses the flood hazard loss estimation in flood area combining flood forecast-warning system with flood control structural measure, under the condition of different flood forecast period and forecast precision and people's response to warning. The optimum multiobjective risk decision model for flood control and hazard mitigation is established. The object function of the model uses the principle of minimizing investment expense, maximizing flood control benefit and minimizing risk in order to take full advantage of the flood regulative capacity of reservoir and all its flood control structural and nonstructural measures, and to reduce the loss of the flooded area to the greatest extent.