采油管道的失效概率和剩余寿命预测模型研究

随油气田开发时间的不断延长，油气田内油气采集管道发生失效的可能性也在不断的增加。文章基 于油气采集管道失效概率模型和剩余强度模型，建立了基于腐蚀的采油管道剩余寿命和失效概率计算模型，分析 了工作压力、腐蚀速率、屈服强度等因素对采油管道的腐蚀失效概率和剩余寿命的影响规律。结果表明，文章所建 立的基于腐蚀的采油管道失效概率和安全使用寿命的计算方法的计算结果较为准确，对采油管道的运行管理有一 定的理论指导意义。当采油管道的工作压力从 4.85 MPa增加6.55 MPa时，采油管道剩余寿命从28年减少至16 年；当坑深腐蚀速率和坑长腐蚀速率分别由0.05 ｍｍ/ａ和 2.5 ｍｍ/ａ上升至0.2 ｍｍ/ａ和10 ｍｍ/ａ时，采油管道安 全使用寿命下降21-42 年；当采油管道规格由DN600增加至DN900时，采油管道的使用寿命增加10年。失效事 件的关联性与采油管道的屈服强度对采油管道的失效概率影响作用较小，属于次要影响因素。

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAILURE PROBABILITY AND REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION MODEL FOR OIL PRODUCTION PIPELINE

With the oil and gas field development time increase, the possibility of oil field pipeline failure also increases. Based on the failure probability and residual strength model of oil and gas collection pipelines, a corrosion-based calculation model for remaining life and failure probability of oil production pipelines is set up. The effects of working pressure, corrosion rate, yield strength and other factors on corrosion failure probability and remaining life of oil production pipelines are analyzed. The results have proved the accuracy of the corrosion-based production pipeline failure probability and remaining life model. It has a certain theoretical guiding significance for the management of oil production pipelines. When the working pressure of the oil production pipeline increased to 6. 55 MPa from 4. 85 MPa, the remaining life of the production pipeline will be reduced from 28 years to 16 years. When corrosion rates of the pit depth and length increased respectively from 0. 05 mm /a and 2. 5 mm /a to 0. 2 mm /a and 10 mm /a, the safe service life of oil production pipelines will be dropped by 21 ~ 42 years. When the production pipeline specification is upgraded from DN600 to DN900, the service life of the production pipeline will be increased by 10 years. The correlation between failure events and the yield strength of the production pipeline is the secondary influence factor, have less effects on the failure probability of the production pipeline.