流域洪水资源利用的理论框架探讨I:定量解析

自21世纪初以来,中国北方地区干旱缺水的严峻形势,催生了旨在挖掘洪水利用潜力、缓解水资源短缺矛盾的"洪水资源利用"的概念出现,并迅速成为防洪和水资源高效利用领域的研究热点。论文在梳理总结多年研究积累的基础上,从洪水资源利用概念形成与流域水量平衡方程出发,建立了流域洪水资源利用的定义和概念性模型,指出洪水资源利用的本质是风险与效益的博弈;采用极限分析理论,推理辨析与洪水资源利用潜力评价密切相关的若干概念及其定量关系;论述常见洪水资源利用方式基本原理和技术关键,进而建立涵盖洪水资源利用潜力评价、利用方式选择和风险效益评估于一体的流域洪水资源利用模式。

Theoretical framework of floodwater resources utilization in a basin I:Quantitative interpretation

Since the early 21st century, the serious situation of water shortage in northern China has spawned to the concept of flood resources utilization, aiming at taping the flood utilization potential, reliev-ing the contradictions of water resources shortage, and quickly become a hot research topic in the field of flood control and high efficient utilization of water resources. Floodwater resources utilization research and practice started with optimizing design and dynamic control flood limited water level of reservoirs. After more than 10 years of research,the research scales has been extended to the whole basin flood control sys-tem from a reservoir, the technology is improved gradually. However, the floodwater resources utilization concept has not yet unified so far, and its theoretical system has not yet been established, which hinders its concrete application in practice. In this paper, the authors established the definition of flood resources utilization in a basin and its conceptual model based on the evolving concept of flood resources utilization formation and river basin water balance equation, and pointed out that the nature of flood resources utiliza-tion in a basin is the balance between the risks and benefits, and then reasoned and discriminated some concepts related flood resources utilization potential evaluation and their quantitative relationship. The basic principles and key technology of serval common development patterns of flood resources utilization in a ba-sin are discussed. As a result, the theoretical framework and development patterns of flood water resources utilization is built including potential evaluation,pattern selection,and risk assessment and so on.