我国房地产经济泡沫的形成机理与区域性特征

从房地产的产业特征入手,对房地产经济泡沫的形成机理进行了实证解释,并通过对1987至2001年全国及北京市、天津市、上海市和海南省的商品房平均销售价格进行分析,说明房地产经济泡沫的区域性特点.认为房地产业产品的不可流动性和差异性、资本的投机性和市场的区域性等特点,决定了房地产经济泡沫具有区域性的特点,因此,政府不仅要对房地产泡沫进行宏观监控,更应当对区域性的泡沫进行有针对性的政策干预.这样才能既保证整个行业的健康稳步发展,又可以防止区域性泡沫的破裂造成对整个宏观经济的系统性影响.

Mechanism and Regional Characteristics of Economy Bubble in Real Estate Industry of China

In this paper starting with characteristics of real estate industy,the mechanism of fonmation of the real estate economy bubble is explained with real cases,and the regional characteristics are interpreted through analyzing the average sale price of commodity house in cities as Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Hainan province and the whole country from 1987 to 2001.In the end of the paper,the author concluded that the regional characteristics of real estate economy bubble are decided by such characteristics as non-fluidity of the product,diversity,venture capital and market region.So the government should not only inspect and manage macroscopically the economy bubble but also control the regional economy bubble,which will ensure the steady development of the whole industry and prevent the systematic influence on the macro economy resulting from bursting of the regional economy bubble.