| 基于主成分分析的BP神经网络在延安市需水预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 舒媛媛,周维博,刘 雷,董起广,李云排.基于主成分分析的BP神经网络在延安市需水预测中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(6):172-175. |
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| 作者姓名： | 舒媛媛 周维博 刘 雷 董起广 李云排 |
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| 作者单位： | 长安大学环境科学与工程学院,陕西西安,710054 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用延安市1990～2010年的需水量数据,采用主成分分析法对影响水资源需求量的10个因子进行了分析.结果表明:GDP、降雨量、居民生活用水量及生态环境用水量4个因子为影响需水量的主要因子,将此作为主要因子构造BP神经网络的输入样本,建立延安市需水量预测模型.模拟结果与实际值相吻合,并利用模型对2015年需水量进行了预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 需水预测 主成分分析法 BP神经网络 延安市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/8/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 9/8/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Application of BP neutral networks to water demand forcast of Yan'an City based on principle component analysis |
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| SHU Yuanyuan,ZHOU Weibo,LIU Lei,DONG Qiguang and LI Yunpai.Application of BP neutral networks to water demand forcast of Yan'an City based on principle component analysis[J].Journal of water resources and water engineering,2012,23(6):172-175. |
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| Authors: | SHU Yuanyuan ZHOU Weibo LIU Lei DONG Qiguang and LI Yunpai |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Environment Science and Technology,Chang’an University,xi’an 710054,China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking the water demand data from 1990to 2010of Yan'an City of Shaanxi Province, this paper analyzes the main factors that influences the water resource quantity based on the principle component analysis method. The results show that GDP, rainfall, residents living water consumption and ecological environment water consumption are the primary indexes that affact the water demand. Taking the main indexes as input samples, the paper set up forcast model of water demand. The simulation results are consistent with the actual value, and use the model to predict water demand in 2015. |
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