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| 改进单指数平滑法预测某市日用水量 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘丽娜,张鑫,崔崇威,王立立.改进单指数平滑法预测某市日用水量[J].低温建筑技术,2013,35(6). |
| 作者姓名： | 刘丽娜 张鑫 崔崇威 王立立 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 黑龙江工程学院土木与建筑工程学院,哈尔滨,150050 2. 哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院,哈尔滨,150090 3. 黑龙江省环境保护厅,哈尔滨,150090 |
| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅科研资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 为实现供水管网经济、可靠、科学的优化调配用水量,给出一种基于改进单指数平滑预测方法,该预测方法引进"追踪信号"来反应时间序列的变化,通过重新修正平滑常数a以建立改进单指数预测模型。以东北某城市日用水量为原始数据进行了实际预测,模型精度检验的结果满足Y市用水量要求,该预测模型应用于Y市的日用水量预测,为Y市供水优化调配提供有效依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 供水管网 优化调配 用水量预测 |
IMPROVED SINGLE-EXPONENT SMOOTHNESS METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF URBAN DAILY WATER DEMAND IN SOME CITY |
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| LIU Li-na , ZHANG Xin , CUI Chong-wei , WANG Li-li.IMPROVED SINGLE-EXPONENT SMOOTHNESS METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF URBAN DAILY WATER DEMAND IN SOME CITY[J].Low Temperature Architecture Technology,2013,35(6). | |
| Authors: | LIU Li-na ZHANG Xin CUI Chong-wei WANG Li-li |
| Abstract: | To economically,reliably and scientifically implement optimal operation of water demand,the improved single-exponent smoothness method was presented based on tracking signal to reflect the changes in time series.By re-fix the smoothing constant a to establish the improved single-exponent smoothness predictive models.The model is applied to a practical project in a city of north east for daily water demands forecasting by checking up the precision,the model is proved to be feasible and effective.Application of this high-precision method to the urban daily water demand and forecast of Y city shows that it is an effective warranty for the city's water optimal arrangement. |
| Keywords: | water supply networks optimal operation water demand forecast |
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