基于潜伏期的网络蠕虫传播模型及其仿真分析

随着Internet的迅速发展，网络蠕虫已严重威胁着网络信息安全。现有的网络蠕虫传播模型仅仅考虑了网络蠕虫传播的初始阶段和达到稳定状态时的网络特性．不能刻画网络蠕虫快速传播阶段的网络特性。文章运用系统动力学的理论和方法．建立一种基于潜伏期的网络蠕虫传播模型，能够从定性和定量两方面分析和预测网络蠕虫传播趋势。模拟结果表明网络蠕虫潜伏期与免疫措施强度是影响网络蠕虫传播过程的重要因素。

Latent Period-based Worm Propagation Model and Its Simulation Analysis

With the rapid growth of Internet, Internet worms have threatened network security seriously. The existing Internet worm models only consider the Internet characteristics of the early phase and the stable phase of Internet worm propagation procedure, and can't depict the Internet characteristics of the rapid propagation phase of Internet worms. This paper uses the theories and methods of system dynamics to build a model of the propagation of Internet worms based on latent period, in which we can analyze and forecast the trend of Internet worms' propagation qualitatively and quantitatively. The simulation results show that the latent period of Internet worms and the immunity measure intensity are important factors to influence Internet worm propagation procedure.