| 洪灾风险度量方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周爱霞,张行南,夏达忠.洪灾风险度量方法研究[J].水利学报,2007(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周爱霞 张行南 夏达忠 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 江苏南京 [3]江苏南京 |
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| 基金项目： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2006411911) |
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| 摘 要： | 风险度量方法的选择直接影响风险分析结果从而影响风险决策。本文在对风险含义辨析的基础上,对常用洪灾风险度量方法进行评述,针对洪灾风险度量存在的指标单调、未充分考虑决策者主观感受等问题,讨论了将VaR方法以及基于效用的风险度量方法应用到洪灾风险度量中的可能性。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪灾风险 风险度量 VaR 效用函数 |
A study on quantitative flood risk measure method |
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| ZHOU Ai-xia,ZHANG Xing-nan,XIA da-zhong.A study on quantitative flood risk measure method[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007(Z1). |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Ai-xia ZHANG Xing-nan XIA da-zhong |
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| Abstract: | The risk measure method is of great importance in risk analysis,which directly relates to the results of risk analysis and in turn influences the decision-making.The article analyzed conception of "risk",reviewed and made comments on the risk measure methods often used in flood risk analysis.Considering the monotony and the defect that can't reflect the subjective preference of the often used flood risk measure method,the article discuss the feasibility and means that apply the VaR method and utility-based method to the flood risk measure. |
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| Keywords: | flood risk risk measure VaR utility function |
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