| 综合利用水库防洪与兴利矛盾的多目标风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡振鹏,冯尚友.综合利用水库防洪与兴利矛盾的多目标风险分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),1989(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡振鹏 冯尚友 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西工业大学
(胡振鹏)，武汉水利电力学院水能动力工程系(冯尚友) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文针对综合利用水库运行中存在的防洪与兴利矛盾,以多目标决策理论为基础,以分解-聚合方法为工具,建立了一个模型系统进行多目标风险分析。利用这个模型系统,探讨了丹江口水库防洪与兴利矛盾的冲突焦点和对立程度,分析了水库运行的规律与特点。计算了水库防洪,发电与灌溉效益等方案的转换关系、为制定、缓解水库长期运行方案中的矛盾提供了科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 综合利用水库 长期运行 多目标决策 风险分析 |
Multiobjective Risk Analysxs for the Contradiction between Flood Control and Benefit Promotion in Reservoir Operation |
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| Hu Zhenpeng, Feng Shangyou.Multiobjective Risk Analysxs for the Contradiction between Flood Control and Benefit Promotion in Reservoir Operation[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,1989(1). |
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| Authors: | Hu Zhenpeng Feng Shangyou |
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| Affiliation: | Hu Zhenpeng; Feng Shangyou |
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| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to mitigate the contradiction between flood control and benefit promotion existed in reservoir operation for comprehensive utilization. A model system that consists of the decomposition-aggregation model and the simulation model is developed for multiobjective risk analysis in the operation of Dang Jiang Kou Reservoir. A trade-off among the competing objectives including flood risk, expected value of the annual energy production and irrigation reliability is obtained and the best-compromise solution is suggested, thus alleviating the above-mentioned contradiction. |
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| Keywords: | multipurpose reservoir long-time operation multiobjective decision making risk analysis |
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