可接受风险理论在煤矿安全领域中的应用

为深入了解行业风险状况,辅助风险决策,基于可接受风险理论,以2个"五年计划"("十一五"及"十二五")为时间周期,对煤矿行业的事故数据进行收集推导,采用平均个人风险值法(AIR)和事故累计概率-死亡人数曲线法(FN)建立了煤矿行业可接受风险标准,并对其应用进行研究:基于可接受风险跨领域横向比较了煤矿及化工等行业的风险水平;基于可接受风险-生活质量指数(LQI)分析了煤矿行业当前形式下的最优安全投入;提出了一种基于可接受风险-模糊层次分析(Fuzzy-AHP)的煤矿生产半定量风险评估方法,实现了对煤矿生产个人风险及社会风险的综合评估需求。

Application of acceptable risk theory in coal mine safety field

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the industry’s risk status and assist in risk decision-making, based on the acceptable risk theory, we use two"five-year plans"("Eleventh Five-Year Plan"and"Twelfth Five-Year Plan") as the time periods to collect accident data of coal mines. Meanwhile, acceptable risk criteria for the coal industry is established by average individual risk(AIR) value method and cumulative frequency of accident-deaths number(FN) curve method. And we research on the application of acceptable risk criteria for the coal industry: compared horizontally the risk levels of coal mine, chemical industry and other industries based on acceptable risk, analyzed the optimal safety investment in the current form of coal mine industry based on the acceptable risk-life quality index, and proposed a semi-quantitative risk assessment method for coal mine production based on acceptable risk and fuzzy AHP theory to comprehensively assess personal risks and social risks of coal mine.