相似日短期负荷预测的非线性理论基础与改进

从非线性动力系统理论角度看,相似日预测的实质是对负荷序列中平衡点和准周期行为的预测。特定相似日预测方法所使用的负荷序列频谱越宽,预测结果就越准确,其实质是加强了准周期和混沌成分的预测;另外,采用负荷水平则增强了对平衡点的预测能力。采用“连续多天负荷”作为改进的相似日预测的基本单元、采用原始负荷的“负荷趋势 相似日”分解预测、对原始负荷序列按照素数间隔二次抽样等,都是提高预测准确率的具体手段。

Nonlinear Theoretical Foundation and Improvement of Similar Days Method for Short Term Load Forecasting

From the viewpoint of nonlinear dynamic system theory, the substance of load forecasting by the loads in similar days is the forecasting for the behaviors of equilibrium points and quasi-periods. The wider the frequency spectrum of the load sequence used in specified similar days method is, the more accurate the forecasting result will be, because the forecasting for quasi-periodic and chaotic components are enhanced; moreover, the forecasting ability of equilibrium points can be improved by use of mean of loads. Following measures can be used to improve forecasting accuracy: using load data of continuous multi-days as the basic unit of improved similar days method; decomposing original load data into load trend and similar days load series, then applying the similar days method to the latter; and sub-sampling the original load series according to prime number intervals and so on.