基于GDIM的陕西省工业碳排放影响因素研究

为能有针对性地控制工业碳排放量，本文在计算2008—2017年陕西省工业碳排放量及分析其特征的基础上，运用广义迪氏指数分析法（GDIM）对工业经济水平、能源消耗、人口规模等陕西省工业碳排放影响因素进行分解并量化其贡献率。研究结果表明：陕西省工业碳排放与消耗能源碳强度、工业人均碳排放量、单位GDP的碳排放量、工业生产总值、能源消耗和工业从业人口之间存在正相关关系，碳排放量的不断增长与陕西省工业GDP的增长、能源消耗的增长密切相关；工业人均GDP变化引起碳排放变化的抑制效应。最后为陕西省工业低碳发展提供了对策建议。

INDUSTRIAL CARBON EMISSION FACTORS IN SHAANXI PROVINCE BASED ON GDIM

To control industrial carbon emission on purpose, this paper calculates the Shaanxi's industrial carbon emission in 2008-2017 along with its characters, and applies GDIM to study the industrial carbon emission factors, such as industrial economic level, energy consumption and population, which have been decomposed to measure their contribution ratio. Results suggest that Shaanxi's industrial carbon emission is positively related to consumed energy intensity, industrial carbon emission per capita, unit GDP carbon emission, industrial GDP, energy consumption and energy consumption growth, rising carbon emission is closely connected to GDP growth and increment of energy consumption. Change of industrial GDP per capita induces a constraint effect on carbon emission change. This paper presents suggestions for Shaanxi's low-carbon development.