冷却猪肉中气单胞菌暴露评估的不确定性和变异性

探讨冷却猪肉中气单胞菌暴露评估是否区分不确定性和变异性对结果的影响，并基于前期评估结果，对冷却猪肉中气单胞菌从销售到食用前阶段的增殖情况通过点估计和概率分布估计两种方法来实现。结果表明：点估计可能低估食用风险，概率分布考虑了输入量的各种可能性，推测结果更符合实际情况；同时，以符合正态分布的家庭贮藏温度为例修正参数设置，考虑全为不确定性，部分不确定性、部分变异性，全为变异性3 种可能情况，得到区分不确定性和变异性后的风险概率由不区分前的22.1%降为20.2%，全为变异性的概率仅为11.0%，从方法论角度探讨不同方法获得的风险差异，为后续定量风险评估提高精确性和可靠性提供理论参考。

Uncertainty and Variability of Quantitative Exposure Assessment of Aeromonas spp. in Chilled Pork

The effect of separating the uncertainty from variability was studied in the quantitative exposure assessment of
Aeromonas spp. in chilled pork, and deterministic and probability estimate were respectively applied for Aeromonas spp.
growth in chilled pork from retail, transportation to home storage. Results indicated that the deterministic method might
underestimate the dietary risk, and probability estimate could be better for fitting the different possible practical conditions.
Meanwhile, the parameter setting of home storage temperature due to normal distribution was provided as one example to
consider 3 scenarios as follows: total uncertainty, half uncertainty and half variability and total variability. It could be found
that the cumulative probability 20.2% was obtained after separating the uncertainty from variability, compared with 22.1%
without the separation. This study, mainly focused on the methodology of exposure assessment, provided a theoretical
reference for the improvement of accuracy and reliability of further quantitative risk assessment.