降雨作用下滑坡渐进破坏概率分析与应用研究

强降雨作用通常是触发大型滑坡的主要诱因，为更好地研究降雨条件下滑坡的变形破坏机理，分析计算降雨入渗作用引起的暂态孔隙水压力、岩土容重变化及岩土抗剪强度对滑坡稳定性的影响，将模糊随机可靠性理论引入滑坡的稳定性分析中去，探讨滑坡渐进破坏的时空演化特征。首先，推导了降雨作用下考虑基质吸力作用的滑带土条块安全余度的表达式，然后，在此基础上，同时考虑滑坡土强度参数及功能函数的模糊随机性，分别计算条块的局部破坏概率、渐进破坏概率和扩展破坏概率，从本质上研究降雨作用下滑坡时空演化过程。以河南嵩县白河滑坡为例，长期持续的强降雨入渗则是其诱发的主要因素，斜坡变形破坏模式属于孔隙水压力诱发的平推式地质模式，应用模糊模糊随机可靠性理论分析了滑坡发生→发展→破坏的动态演化过程，为支护设计提供理论依据。

Progressive Failure Probability Analysis on Landslide under Precipitation and its Application

Heavy precipitation is usually the main factor to triggered the large landslide, in order to research the deformation failure mechanism under the precipitation condition, analysis the factors such as the transient pore water pressure, change of soil bulk density and geotechnical shear strength, which influenced the stability of landslide, the fuzzy random reliability theory was introduced into the stability analysis to the landslide, to explore the space-time evolution gradual damage characteristics of the landslide. First of all, the slice safety allowance expression was deduced under the action of rainfall considering the effect of matrix suction, and then, on the basis of this, the fuzzy randomness of strength parameters to sliding soil and the performance function were considered, the local failure probability, the gradual damage probability and the transfer probability were studied respectively, so as to research the space-time evolution process of landslides essentially under precipitation. Taking the Baihe landslide as an example, long-term rainfall infiltration is the main reason to its occurrence, the deformation failure mode belongs to flat push geological model induced by pore water pressure, the fuzzy random fuzzy reliability theory was applied to analysis the dynamic evolution process, from occurrence , development to damage process, in order to provide a theory basis for the support design of the landslides.