基于LSTM-RPA音乐流行趋势预测研究

大数据背景下的音乐历史数据蕴含丰富的时间信息和用户行为信息，通过分析音乐艺人和听众行为数据，可以较为精准地预测音乐播放量走势，进而预测音乐流行趋势。传统的时间序列预测模型可以准确预测短趋势，但在长趋势预测中受历史信息衰减的影响，难以获得较好的效果。针对LSTM在音乐长趋势预测中历史信息衰减的问题，提出改进的LSTM滚动预测模型，该模型在预测阶段将前一次输入与当前预测结果相结合，使得历史信息可以沿预测趋势方向流动，从而缓解模型在长趋势预测中的历史信息衰减。实验采用“2016中国高校计算机大赛——大数据挑战赛：阿里音乐流行趋势预测”的比赛数据集，并使用比赛主办方提供的F值进行评估。实验结果显示：在相同条件下预测艺人未来30天的每日音乐播放量，最优LSTM滚动预测模型与LSTM、BiLSTM、GRU、RNN相比F值提高13.03%、16.74%、11.91%、18.52%，平均误差减少39.02%、48.55%、36.02%、52.88%；与传统的时间序列预测模型差分整合滑动平均自回归模型相比F值提高10.67%，平均误差降低32.64%。

Research for Music Trends Prediction Based on LSTM-RPA

The big data about music history contains information about time and users’ behavior. By analyzing the behavior data of artists and listeners, researchers can predict the trend of music play-count, and then predict  the trend of popular songs accurately. The traditional trend prediction models can predict the short trend better than the long trend. However, the traditional trend prediction model is difficult to obtain good results because of the serious attenuation of historical information in the long trend prediction. This paper proposes an improved LSTM rolling prediction algorithm（LSTM-RPA） for the loss of historical information in the long trend prediction. RPA combines LSTM model historical input with current prediction results as model input for next time prediction, so that the historical information can flow along the prediction trend. The experiment uses the competition data set of “2016 China Collegiate Computing Contest—Big Data Challenge：Popular Music Prediction”. And the experimental evaluation is F value provided by the competition organizer. The evaluation results show that the LSTM-RPA model has increased F score by 13.03%, 16.74%, 11.91% and 18.52%, has decreased the mean error by 39.02%, 48.55%, 36.02% and 52.88% under the same conditions to predict the music play-count by artists in the next 30 days, compared with LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU and RNN. And proposed method outperforms traditional sequence models, ARIMA, F score is increased by 10.67% and mean error is decreased by 32.64%.