促进可再生能源市场化的省内中长期运行策略研究

针对可再生能源市场化进程的加快，结合中国电力市场建设现状，对促进可再生能源市场化消纳的省级中长期交易机制以及与现货市场的衔接问题进行研究。利用资源分布特点，提出以可再生能源消纳及常规机组合约完成进度偏差为目标的电量分解模型，针对可再生能源的不确定性，提出基于多场景集的ANFIS预测技术进行可再生能源中长期电量预测，以此为基础进行电量分解，提升可再生能源利用率；建立计及中长期合约分解电量及可再生能源出力不确定性的日前市场出清策略，保证中长期合约电量的物理执行，实现与现货市场的有序衔接。最后通过算例分析验证所提模型的有效性和实用性。

RESEARCH ON MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM OPERATION STRATEGY OF PROMOTING MARKETIZATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PROVINCE

In view of the acceleration of the market-oriented process of renewable energy, combined with the current situation of domestic power market construction, the provincial medium and long-term transaction mechanism to promote the market-oriented consumption of renewable energy and the connection of the spot market are studied. Based on the characteristics of resource distribution, an electricity decomposition model aiming at the consumption of renewable energy and the completion schedule deviation of conventional unit contract is proposed. Aiming at the uncertainty of renewable energy, an ANFIS prediction technology based on multi scenario set is proposed to predict the medium and long-term electricity consumption of renewable energy. On this basis, electricity decomposition is carried out to improve the utilization rate of renewable energy; Establish a day ahead market clearing strategy taking into account the uncertainty of medium and long-term contract decomposition electricity and renewable energy output, ensure the physical implementation of medium and long-term contract electricity and realize the orderly connection with the spot market. Finally, an example is given to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.