长江水问题基本态势及耦合关系分析

受到不断增强的人类活动与日益频繁的气候变化的叠加扰动,长江新老水问题纷繁交织。结合“十四五”规划和长江大保护的新要求,从宏观层面分析了当前长江面临局部地区缺水、涉水管理水平不足等水资源问题,沿江总磷排放超标、持久性有机污染物污染特征尚不明确等水环境问题,生态容量下降、生物资源锐减等水生态问题,以及极端洪涝干旱事件频发等水灾害问题的基本态势。最后从水系统角度揭示了温度升高等气候变化因素和水电开发、航运、农业活动、城市化进程等人为因素对长江“四水”(水资源、水环境、水生态、水灾害)问题发展变化的外在驱动影响,深入剖析了长江“四水”问题之间的内在关联反馈机制,以期能够增加人们对长江水问题耦合关系的了解,提高系统治理长江水问题的能力。

Basic Situation and Coupling Relationship of the Yangtze River Water Problems

The old and new water problems of Yangtze River intertwined as disturbed by intensifying human activities and increasingly frequent climate change. In line with the new requirements posed by the 14^th Five-Year Plan and the Great Protection of the Yangtze River, we analyzed the basic situation of Yangtze River’s four water problems from a macroscopic view: water resources problem involving local water shortage, insufficient management performance and others, water environment problem including excessive total phosphorus emission and unclear characteristics of persistent organic pollutants, water ecology problem such as sharp decline in ecological capacity and biological resources, as well as water-related disaster problem like frequent extreme floods and droughts. We further revealed the external driving influences of climate change factors such as temperature increase and human factors such as hydropower development, shipping, agricultural activities, and urbanization on the development and change of the four water problems. We also expounded the internal connection and feedback mechanism among the four water problems in expectation of enhancing people’s understanding of the coupling relationship among the four water problems and improving the ability of managing the Yangtze River.