考虑碳自然循环的离网型风/光-火联合供能系统容量优化配置

针对合理规划离网型风/光-火联合供能系统使其达到碳中和要求的问题，首先考虑风光出力不确定性对新能源为主的离网型供能系统可靠性的影响，提出离网型风/光-火联合供能系统的基本结构；其次，基于自然界可消纳CO₂上限与世界能源需求总量之间的关系，建立供能系统的碳自然循环模型；以系统年总费用值最小为目标，建立供能系统容量优化配置数学模型，并采用粒子群算法求解。基于某实际离网型联合供能系统算例分析表明：所述容量优化配置方法在以较低成本保证供能可靠性的同时，可实现离网型风/光-火联合供能系统CO₂的“净零排放”。

OPTIMAL CAPACITY ALLOCATION OF OFF-GRID WIND/PV-THERMAL ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE CARBON CYCLE

This paper developed an optimal configuration method for an off-grid combined wind/PV-thermal energy supply system considering the natural carbon cycle. Firstly, we analyzed the influence of the uncertainty of wind and PV energy output on the reliability of the functional system and proposed the basic structure of the off-grid wind/PV-thermal combined energy supply system. Secondly, a natural carbon cycle model of functional systems is established based on the relationship between the maximum CO₂ absorbed by nature and the total energy demand of the world. Finally, we established a mathematical model for capacity optimal allocation of the power supply system, aiming at minimizing the total annual cost of the system, and solved it using a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of numerical experiments show that the proposed method achieves “net zero emission” of CO₂ in an off-grid wind/PV-thermal combined power supply system while ensuring the reliability of the power supply at a lower cost.