Modelling the long-term fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) in the Grenland Fjords, Norway

The development and application of a predictive fate model (DIG--Dioxins in Grenland) for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) in the marine environment of the Norwegian Grenland Fjords are described. The objective of the modelling study was to predict long-term future changes in PCDD/F concentrations in the fjord following the cessation of point source emissions. To assess the reliability of the model, the model performance was evaluated by comparing model results to field measurements collected between 1989 and 2001. Model bias (defined as the ratio of median predicted concentration and median observed concentration) for prediction of concentrations for three different PCDD/F congeners (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), 1,2,3,6,7,8-hexadibenzofuran (HxCDF) and octachlorodibenzofuran (OCDF)) in the fjord was between 0.53 and 24, which was deemed a satisfactory result for models of this type. The model was run to determine the dynamic change in concentrations between 1950 and 2050 and to examine the key fluxes of PCDD/Fs in the fjord. Between 1990 and 2050 sediment concentrations of TCDD, HxCDF and OCDF were predicted to fall at fairly constant but gradually slowing rates to concentrations 52, 98 and 88 times lower, respectively, of their 1990 values. Losses of PCDD/Fs from the bottom sediments in the Frierfjord were predicted to be a combination of sediment burial and net resuspension to the water column. Sediment burial was shown to be relatively more important in the fjord's deep-water sediments, whereas resuspension was relatively more important in the shallow sediments. For the shallower sediments, a net water-to-sediment flux was predicted for all three congeners up until the mid-1970s, when emission reductions were initiated, and thereafter a net sediment-to-water flux was predicted. The shallow sediments acted as net sources to the deeper sediments and to the fishing areas in the outer fjord.