黄河包头段水质状况短期预测

包头市是中国重要的重工业基地,也是严重缺水城市,流经包头市南缘的黄河成为包头市可利用的重要地表水源,因此准确地预测黄河包头段地表水污染物浓度及其趋势变化具有重要的理论和现实意义。采用灰色残差辨识法对黄河包头段地表水体建立DO、TB、IMn和NH3-N四项污染指标的水质预测模型,预测结果表明,DO、TB和NH3-N三项污染指标预测结果与实测结果基本吻合,而IMn指标波动性较大,可能是由于不合理放牧及化肥过量使用导致实测值无规律变化造成的,但总的预测变化趋势符合实际情况。

Short-term Prediction of Water Quality Conditions in the Baotou Area of Yellow River

Baotou City is one of China’s important heavy industry bases,and it is also a city of severe water shortage.The Yellow River flows through the southern section of Baotou City,and it becomes an important available surface water source for Baotou City,thus it has important theoretical and practical significances to predict the concentrations of the surface water contaminants and their variations in the Baotou area of the Yellow River.The grey residual identification method can be used to establish the short-term water quality prediction model for the Baotou area of Yellow River,and the concentration values of DO,TB,IMn,and NH3-N were selected as the prediction indexes.The results showed that the predicted values of DO,TB,and NH3-N were similar to the measured values,whereas the predicted value of IMn showed higher fluctuations due to the unreasonable grazing and the excessive use of chemical fertilizer,but the overall variation trend of IMn index was in accordance with the actual situation.