水库汛限水位设计与运用概率统计分析方法

考虑水库运用情况,一些水库由于水资源利用等因素,实际运行过程中多数年份汛期大洪水到来前水位低于设计汛限水位,即防洪起调水位低于设计值,增加了部分调洪库容,提高了防洪调节能力。考虑设计汛限水位出现概率进行汛限水位设置,在规划设计时通过概率分析可采用起调水位低于设计汛限水位对设计洪水进行调节从而降低坝高;对已建水库分析抬高汛限水位增加兴利库容、提高水库调蓄供水能力。在保证工程安全前提下,取得更经济的设计和运行方案。

Discussion of Probability and Statistical Methods in the Design and Application of Flood Control Level in Reservoirs

Due to the factors such as water resources utilization,the water level is lower than the flood control level during the actual operation process in some reservoirs before the flood season in most years,which indicates that the flood regulation level is lower than the design value,and therefore the flood storage capacity is increased and the flood regulation ability is improved.Based on the probability of the occurrence of the design flood control level,the flood control level is determined.Moreover,the approach of that the regulation level is lower than the design flood control level is used to adjust the design flood and then reduce the dam height according to the probability analysis.For the existing reservoirs,increasing the flood control level is analyzed to increase the flood regulation and storage capacity,which can help determine the more economic design and operation scheme on the basis of the engineering safety.