气象集合预报的研究进展

集合预报是数值预报发展的一个重要方向,相对于单一的确定性预报,它考虑了初值及模式的不确定性,其结果反映了未来天气的多种状况,能为用户提供确定性预报所不能提供的信息(如预报结果的可信度等)。降水信息是水文预报系统的核心输入,单一的降水预报存在着不确定性,从而使得水文预报也存在不确定性。这种不确定性制约了水利工程调度的科学性。集合预报在一定程度上能解决这种不确定性。从而在水文领域,气象集合预报具有较高的应用价值。为了水文工作者能够更好地应用集合预报,本文首先基于系统的角度,对集合预报系统中的初值扰动、模式扰动和集合预报产品等研究现状及成果进行了评述,然后分析了降水集合预报产品在水文预报领域中的应用情况,最后对集合预报在水文领域中的应用进行了展望。

Review of Weather Ensemble Prediction

Ensemble prediction is an important development direction of numerical prediction.Compared with the single deterministic prediction,the ensemble prediction considers the uncertainties associated with the initial conditions and models,and its results can reflect different possible weather conditions in the future and therefore the ensemble prediction can provide the information which the deterministic prediction cannot(e.g.,the reliability of the forecast).Precipitation information is the core input of the hydrological forecast.The uncertainty of the single precipitation forecast leads to the uncertainty of the hydrological forecasting,which restricts the scientific values of the regulation of the water conservancy project.However,the ensemble forecast can solve the uncertainty to some extent,and thus the weather ensemble prediction is valuable for the practical application in the hydrological field.In order to help the hydrologists better apply the ensemble prediction,this paper reviews the current research status and achievements of the initial disturbance,model disturbance,and products of ensemble prediction based on the point of view of prediction system.The application of the products of precipitation ensemble prediction in the field of hydrological forecast is then analyzed.Finally,the outlook of the application of ensemble forecast in the field of hydrological prediction is presented.