Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China;2. Center of Student Community Education and Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China;1. Faculty of Sciences, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Km. 103 Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada, 22860 Ensenada, B.C., Mexico;2. Faculty of Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands;3. Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, ITM, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 4, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands;1. UNESCO-UNISA Africa Chair in Nanosciences/Nanotechnology, College of Graduate Studies, University of South Africa (UNISA), Muckleneuk Ridge, PO Box 392, Pretoria, South Africa;2. Nanosciences African Network (NANOAFNET), iThemba LABS-National Research Foundation, Old Faure road, 7129 Somerset West, South Africa;3. Deptartment of Physics, University of Western Cape, Private Bag X 17, Bellville 7535, South Africa;4. Physics Department, AOMRG, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia;1. Department of Chemistry and Bioengineering, Tampere University of Technology, Tampere, Finland;2. Department of Signal Processing, Tampere University of Technology, Tampere, Finland |
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| Abstract: | We apply the CARDS solar forecasting tool, developed at the University of South Australia, to forecasting of solar radiation series at three sites in Guadeloupe in the Caribbean. After performing the model estimates at each individual site, forecast errors were tested for cross correlation. It was found that on an hourly time scale, there was small but significant correlation between sites, and this was taken into account in refining the forecast. Cross correlation was found to be insignificant at the ten minute time scale so this effect was not included in the forecasting. Also, the final error series in each case was tested for an ARCH effect, finding that to construct prediction intervals for the forecast a conditional heteroscedastic model had to be constructed for the variance. Note that cross correlation between sites has to be included for this procedure as well as in the forecasting of the radiation. |
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| Keywords: | CARDS forecast model Multivariate modelling Cross correlation Correlated ARCH effect |
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