系统动力学视角下中国城市交通拥堵对策思考

近年来,中国城市交通拥堵问题正严重威胁中国城镇化的健康发展。文章基于系统动力学理论,搭建中国城市交通拥堵的形成机制模型,剖析了畅通工程等传统"修路治堵"的思维误区,分析了当斯定律在当前中国城镇化背景下的具体内涵。并将目前热议的治堵政策措施引入系统动力学模型,分析各项措施对拥堵形成机制的影响,进而对限号等刚性政策和"类修路治堵"型措施的不可持续性进行了批判。最后,建议从城市规划的高度对交通需求"疏、堵"并置,将基础设施投资天平倾向改善公交慢行出行环境,坚持公交导向型开发土地政策,提高机动车出行成本,促进城市交通支持城镇化健康发展。

REFLECTIONS ON ANTI-CONGESTION POLICIES IN CHINESE CITIES FROM SYSTEM DYNAMICS PERSPECTIVE

In recent years,traffic congestion has emerged in many Chinese cities and threatened the sustainability of future urbanization in China.Based on the theory of system dynamics this paper establishes a model for congestion formation mechanism.It illustrates the misled understanding in conventional road-building policies with the purpose of anti-congestion,and analyzes the implication of the Downs Law under Chinese context.Then it introduces various domestic anti-congestion policies into the model and analyzes...