| 海河流域历史水旱序列变化规律研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 卢路,刘家宏,秦大庸,王浩,于赢东. 海河流域历史水旱序列变化规律研究[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2011, 28(11): 14-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 卢路 刘家宏 秦大庸 王浩 于赢东 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室，北京 100038 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家973项目(2006CB40301); 国家自然科学重点基金(40830637),国家自然科学基金创新群体研究基金(50721006); 国家科技支撑计划(2006BAB04A16) |
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| 摘 要： | 对历史时期旱涝灾害的重建及其影响研究是当前探求气候事件发生规律的热点之一，而对周期的计算和对突变点的检测又是探求规律的重要手段。基于海河流域540a旱涝等级资料，运用谱功率分析、小波分析、指数分析和Mann-Kendall法等方法分别对海河流域水旱发生周期和突变点进行计算分析。结论显示：海河流域水旱灾害在历史上分别存在10a，23a，37a和75a左右的主导周期；在17至18世纪间，流域经历了旱型－涝型的转变。
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| 关 键 词： | 海河流域 水旱序列 周期 突变点 Mann-Kendall检测 |
Study on the Changes of Historical Flood and Drought Series in Haihe River Basin |
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| LU Lu,LIU Jia-hong,QIN Da-yong,WANG Hao,YU Ying-dong. Study on the Changes of Historical Flood and Drought Series in Haihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2011, 28(11): 14-18 |
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| Authors: | LU Lu LIU Jia-hong QIN Da-yong WANG Hao YU Ying-dong |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing100038, China |
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| Abstract: | The simulation analysis on floods and droughts and research on their influences are hot topics in the study on regularity of climate events.The calculation of flood and drought periods and the detection of sudden changes are important approaches in exploring the regularity.Based on the historical data of flood-drought grades in the past 540 years,the flood and drought periods and the sudden changes are calculated by means of power spectrum,wavelet analysis,index analysis and Mann-Kendall method.The results ... |
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| Keywords: | Haihe river basin flood and drought series periods sudden changes Mann-Kendall method |
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