土石坝洪水漫顶的事故树分析

通过土石坝现场调研与事故树分析相结合,对造成汛期土石坝洪水漫顶事故的因素进行识别和分析。以水库土石坝洪水漫顶作为顶上事件,对可能引发顶上事件的15个基本事件构建事故树,利用最小割集、最小径集及结构重要度,对其进行事故风险程度分析。结果显示,致使土石坝洪水漫顶的最小割集合有48个,表明土石坝洪水漫顶易发生;防止事故发生的最小径集合有3个;坝体存在隐患是控制土石坝洪水漫顶事故发生的关键。

Fault Tree Analysis of Earth Rock Dam Due to Overtopping

By means of combination of earth rock dam site investigation and fault tree analysis, the factors that caused the dam overtopping incident in flood season are identified and analyzed. Regarding overtopping embankment dam of the reservoir as top event, the fault tree of the 15 basic events that may cause the top event is established. The degree of accident risk is analyzed by using the minimal cut sets and minimal path sets and structural importance. The results show that the number of minimum cut sets that causes the accidents of earth rock dam break due to overtopping is 48, which reveals that such accidents are easy to occur; the number of minimum path sets that implies the prevention of such accidents is 3; the hidden danger of dam is crucial to control and prevention of such accidents especially during flood periods.