Cost-Benefit Model for the Construction of Tornado Shelters

Tornadoes have been identified as one of the leading causes of death and injuries among natural disasters in the United States. Shelters play an important role in tornado mitigation efforts, since tornado-related mortality and injury rates are higher when tornado shelters are not available. This paper describes a methodology to address the viability of construction of tornado shelters in areas which have significant tornado hazards. A cost-benefit model that estimates the relative advantages of three tornado shelter construction strategies was developed and tested. The model accounts for factors such as probability of tornado occurrence, historical death and injury rates, economic incentives, and local construction and maintenance costs. The implications of factors such as useful life period, discount rate, and occupancy on the viability of the shelter were also studied. Relevance of this model to decision makers, as well as future needs for the model, is discussed.