图们江流域气温变化特征及成因研究

以图们江流域7个气象站1965— 2018年共54年的年平均气温数据为研究数据,运用EOF分析、滑动平均法、Mann - Kendall检验和气候倾向率等方法,从年际变化、年代际变化和突变等方面研究了图们江流域的气温时空变化特征.运用合成分析研究了气温对海洋环境的响应,并结合R/S分析预测了图们江流域的气温未来变化趋势.结果表明: 1965— 2018年图们江流域的气温出现多次冷暖波动,但整体呈上升的趋势; 流域内的升温率为0.261 ℃?10a^-1,该值与中国东部地区的升温率一致; 流域内气温发生突变的时间为1991年; 1998— 2018年出现气候变暖停滞现象,其中1998— 2012年呈降温趋势,这与联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)认定的“全球变暖间断期”一致; 流域内未来15～20 a的气候变化趋势与1965— 2018年的趋势相反,即存在降温趋势,但这仅是变暖大趋势下的短期扰动; 黄海和东海局部海域的海温下降以及海温周期变化是图们江流域的气候出现变暖停滞的主要成因.

Characteristics and causes of temperature variation in Tumen River Basin

The annual mean temperature data of seven weather stations in the Tumen River Basin for 54 years from 1965 to 2018 were used as the research data.EOF analysis, moving average method, Mann - Kendall test and climate propensity rate were used to study the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of air temperature in the Tumen River Basin from the aspects of interannual variation, interdecadal variation and abrupt change.The response of air temperature to Marine environment is studied by synthetic analysis, and the future trend of air temperature in Tumen River Basin is predicted by R/S analysis.The results show that the temperature over the Tumen River Basin fluctuated several times from 1965 to 2018, but the overall temperature showed an upward trend.The warming rate in the basin is 0.261 ℃?10a^-1, which is consistent with the warming rate in eastern China.The abrupt change of air temperature in the basin occurred in 1991.There was a global warming hiatus in 1998 to 2018, and a climate cooling trend from 1998 to 2012, which was consistent with the “global warming hiatus” identified by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).The climate change trend in the next 15 to 20 years in the basin is opposite to the trend from 1965 to 2018, that is, there is a cooling trend, but it is only a short - term disturbance under the general warming trend.The decrease of SST and the change of SST cycle in parts of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea are the main causes of climate warming stagnation in the Tumen River Basin.