福建省区域物流与区域经济的关联性与协同度的实证分析

为探析福建省区域物流与区域经济的关联性和协调性,采用灰关联分析模型和复合系统协同度模型对福建省1995—2019年物流与经济的年度数据进行了实证分析.结果显示:公路、水路、民航货运周转量以及沿海港口货物吞吐量与各经济指标的灰关联系数值介于0.768 8与0.943 9之间,即关联强度属于“较高”和“非常高”等级; 铁路货运周转量与各经济指标的灰关联系数值介于0.549 9与0.575 1之间,即关联强度属于“一般”等级; 物流有序度和经济有序度及物流与经济协同度均随时间的增加呈显著增大趋势,但物流与经济协同度的波动性相对较大; 物流对经济的胁迫作用强度为0.837 2, 经济对物流的胁迫作用强度为0.736 1, 这说明物流对经济的影响大于经济对物流的影响.上述结果表明,现阶段福建省在制定经济建设规划时应着重考虑水路、公路、民航的货运能力以及沿海港口的货物吞吐能力,在改进区域物流与区域经济的协同度时应注重改进物流的有序度,特别是铁路货运的有序度.

Study on the correlation and coordination between regional logistics and regional economy in Fujian Province

In order to explore the correlation and coordination between regional logistics and regional economy in Fujian Province, in this paper, the author has used the grey relational analysis model and the composite system coordinating measurement model to conduct an empirical analysis of the annual data of logistics and economy in Fujian Province from 1995 to 2019, and the results show that the gray correlation coefficient value between highway, waterway, civil aviation freight turnover and coastal port cargo throughput and each economic indicator is between 0.768 8 and 0.943 9, that is, the correlation strength belongs to “high” and “very high” levels; the grey correlation value between railway freight turnover and economic indicators is between 0.549 9 and 0.575 1, that is, the correlation strength belongs to the “general” level; with the increase of time, the degree of logistics order, the degree of economic order and the degree of synergy between logistics and economy are significantly increasing, but the degree of synergy between logistics and economy is relatively volatile; the stress intensity of logistics on economy is 0.837 2, and the stress intensity of economy on logistics is 0.736 1, which shows that the impact of logistics on economy is greater than that of economy on logistics.The above results show that at this stage, Fujian Province should focus on considering the freight capacity of waterways, highways, civil aviation and the cargo handling capacity of coastal ports when formulating economic construction plans.Improving the synergy between regional logistics and regional economy should focus on improving the logistics order, especially the order of rail freight.