ANALYSIS OF RESERVES DISCOVERED IN PETROLEUM EXPLORATION |
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Authors: | D. G. Quirk R. Ruthrauff |
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Affiliation: | Maersk Olie og Gas AS, 50 Esplanaden, DK-1263 Copenhagen K, Denmark.;Amerada Hess Corp., One Allen Centre, Houston, TX 77002, USA. |
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Abstract: | Mathematical theory and empirical data show that discovery sizes from mature plays have lognormal distributions. This allows a simple transformation to be used that converts lognormal trends to straight lines from which valuable statistical data on exploration potential is derived. After correcting for the unreliable nature of data from non-commercial accumulations and then discounting the extreme high ends and low ends (P1), discovery size distributions from a variety of mature plays outside the Middle East show certain common properties that help constrain reserves ranges in individual prospects and new play fairways. These are: |
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Keywords: | Discovery size distributions yield sizes exploration risk reserves uncertainty lognormal cumulative probability mature plays historical success |
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