An assessment of high-order bounds for structural reliability |
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Authors: | Glenn L. Greig |
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Affiliation: | Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1 |
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Abstract: | Second-order bounds are often used to estimate the reliability of series structural systems. However, the quality of second-order bounds is poor when the failure modes are highly correlated. This paper examines the merit of third and higher-order bounds. First, the general form of the nth-order upper and lower bounds is derived. Second, an efficient algorithm for computing the n-dimensional multinormal integral is presented. Finally, the performance of the third and fourth-order bounds is examined in three numerical examples. These bounds can provide significant improvement over the second-order bounds, particularly when the number of significant failure modes is small (less than 20) or when the correlations between modes are somewhat localized. |
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Keywords: | multinormal distribution structural reliability system reliability series systems failure probability multidimensional integration |
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