抽油机井躺井的区块预测方法

准确的进行区块抽油机井躺井预测对油田作业费用预算、作业安排、产量计划意义重大。本文根据抽油机井躺井随机性和突发性强的特点,将灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型相结合,利用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对油田现场的原始数据进行趋势化处理,利用马尔可夫预测模型计算预测值的状态转移概率,由此形成了考虑随机因素影响的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。现场试验证明,该方法计算精度较高,实用性强。

A Method for Forecasting Failures of Sucker Rod-pumped Wells

An exact forecast of the failures of a sucker rod-pumped well in a production area means much for an oilfield's operation budget, operational arrangement and production plan. In this paper, according to the characteristics of failed sucker rod-pumped well randomness and strong outburst, with the gray GM (1,1) forecast model and the Markov forecast model combined, gray GM (1,1) forecast model is utilized to handle the primary data of an oilfield, and Markov forecast model is utilized to calculate the state transfer probability of forecast value. Then, the gray Markov forecast model considering the influence of randomness factors is formed. Field results prove that the calculation precision of this method is higher and the practicability is greater.