基于风险分摊的PPP项目投资决策与收益分配研究

以公私合作模式(PPP)进行基础设施建设有利于解决政府建设资金紧张以及政府在公共投资管理上的低效问题.文章首先讨论了公私合作投资双方的投资规模上限,通过模型分析得出合作投资有利于项目总风险的降低.其次,建立了公私合作投资双方的最佳投资比例模型,讨论了PPP合作项目风险的识别以及风险科学分配方法,以建立公平的合作关系,充分调动合作双方的积极性.再次,综合考虑投资和风险因素,使用综合评价方法,给出公私双方的风险分摊系数和收益分配比例,并进行了实例分析以验证该方法的有效性.

Study of PPP Projects Investment Decision and Profits Allocation based on Risk Distribution

Public-private partnerships construction mode can solve the lack of infrastucture construction fund and the inefficience of government management public-invest projects. Firstly,this paper discusses the upper limit of cooperate investment, and analyzes the advantage of reducing investment risk and operating risk from the public sector and the private sector. Secondly,it sets up a model of the invest scale of the public sector with the private sector, and discusses the risk of the PPP financing method and the risk distribution between the public sector with the private sector,in order to prompt the activity and set up a fair agreement of project partnerships.Thirdly,by integrating the investment and risk factors and using fuzzy evaluation method,an algorithm to make the risks and profits proportion is proposed for a type of public-private partnerships project.Moreover, results come from the example, which shows the validity of this investment decision and profits distribution method.