基于突变理论的山洪灾害风险评价指标体系构建与应用

本文通过分析山洪灾害特征建立风险评价指标体系,应用突变评价方法,确定该体系各层突变模型,计算出各子指标的风险突变级数及评价结果,实现了山洪灾害风险评价。以湖南省澧县涔水流域南支为例,验证了该套灾情风险评价体系的合理性和可行性,为山洪灾害风险评价提出了一种新理论方法。

Construction and application of risk assessment system of flash flood disasters based on catastrophe theory

Mountain torrent disaster has many characteristics of a wide range， high frequency， sudden and large loss， which is very important for risk contral related areas.This paper by analyzing the characteristics of flood disasters built a flash flood risk assessment system.Furthermore， by using this system， catastrophe models in different levels have been developed to calculate the risk catastrophe level for sub-indices and obtain assessment results， which has achieved flash flood risk assessment. Taking Cen Shui catchment， Hunan Province， as the research site， the flash floods with different frequency have been analyzed， which verified the rationality and feasibility of the disaster assessment system. It demonstrated that the newly developed system could be used as a useful tool for flash flood risk assessment.