中国天然气产业发展形势与前景

我国天然气产业已经进入快速发展阶段,供、销、储、运体系正在持续不断地发生着深刻的结构性变化,客观把握当前天然气产业的发展形势、趋势并做好科学预判,是关乎国家能源安全的重大课题。为此,通过分析全球天然气资源现状、贸易格局与发展趋势,结合中国天然气产业的发展历程、现状、趋势以及所面临的问题,从需求、供给等方面对我国天然气产业进行了展望分析与判识,进而提出了推进天然气产业合理、可持续发展的战略措施与建议。研究结果表明:①采用综合能源弹性系数法,预测2030年中国天然气消费量约为6 500×10~8 m~3;②受能源供给侧改革、工业化、城镇化等因素的影响,国内天然气消费量增速远高于产量增速,天然气产业发展仍面临着一系列的问题;③需要加大天然气勘探开发力度,以保障国内天然气增储上产;④持续拓展多元化的进口渠道,分散天然气对外依存度增长过快的风险;⑤加快全国性、动态化互联互通体系及枢纽建设;⑥理顺天然气价格机制,逐步放开行业性、季节性消费管控,加强对全国市场的整体销售引导。

Natural gas industry in China: Development situation and prospect

China's natural gas industry has entered a rapid development stage, and its supply, sales, storage and transport systems are continuously undergoing profound structural change. It is a major issue concerning national energy security to objectively grasp the current development situation and trend of natural gas industry and make scientific predictions. In this regard, through the analysis of global natural gas resources status, trade pattern and development trend, we reviewed the development process, current situation, trend and problems in natural gas industry in China, then made prospect analysis and judgment in terms of demand and supply, etc., and finally put forward some reasonable and sustainable strategic countermeasures and proposals. The following results were obtained. (1) The comprehensive energy elasticity coefficient method was adopted to predict that the natural gas consumption volume in 2030 will be about 650 billion cubic meters. (2) Affected by many factors such as energy supply side reform, industrialization and urbanization, the growth rate of domestic natural gas consumption is much higher than that of production and the development of natural gas industry still faces a series of problems. (3) It is necessary to strengthen the exploration and development of natural gas to ensure the increase of domestic natural gas storage and production. (4) Diversified import channels should be continuously expanded to disperse the risk of excessive growth of natural gas dependence on foreign countries. (5) The construction of national and dynamic interconnection system and hub should be accelerated. (6) China should rationalize the price mechanism of natural gas, gradually open the control on industrial and seasonal consumption, and strengthen the overall sales guidance in the national market.