山东省经济、人口与环境耦合协调性演化分析

以山东省16个地级市为研究对象，利用2007年、2012年和2017年山东省各地级市面板数据，构建基于熵权法和物理耦合模型的人口-经济-环境协调度模型，比较分析人口、经济与环境系统耦合协调度的时空演变，计算不同系统发展程度的空间莫兰指数，并为山东省未来的发展规划提出了建议。研究表明：山东省16个地级市的人口、经济与生态系统的协调发展状况逐步改善，综合发展度的提高是其主要促进因素；山东省西部内陆地区的经济和人口系统发展明显落后于东部、中部地区；各地级市经济、人口和环境系统发展的空间自相关程度较低且不显著，但综合发展度与协调度存在显著且微弱的正自相关关系，区域协同发展的潜力有待进一步开发。

EVOLUTION OF COUPLING COORDINATION AMONG SHANDONG'S ECONOMY,POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

This paper, based on panel data of 16 cities of 2007, 2012 and 2017 in Shandong province, establishes a coordination model of population-economy-environment based on entropy and physical coupling model, which is used to study the temporal-spatial evolution of population-economy-environment system coupling coordination and to estimate their spatial Moran's indexes, and presents suggestions for Shandong's future development. Among 16 cities in Shandong province, their coupling coordination is improving thanks to a rising comprehensive development. The western inland is far behind the eastern and central in economy and population. A low spatial autocorrelation exists in their economy-population-environment development, but weakly positive between comprehensive development and coordination. Regional coordinated potential needs to be further developed.