长江经济带水资源承载力综合评价研究

基于2007-2016年省际面板数据，运用 TOPSIS综合评价方法，研究长江经济带各省市水资源承载力的动态变化以及区域差异。结果表明：样本考察期内，长江经济带水资源承载力整体呈较缓慢的下降趋势，其中水资源子系统和社会子系统的贡献最大。从区域差异看，上游成渝经济区水资源承载力最大，中游城市群次之，下游长三角最小；从省市差异看，水资源承载力由高到低依次为：江西、贵州、上海、湖南、云南、江苏、四川、浙江、重庆、湖北和安徽；从空间分布看，水资源承载力较高的省（市）主要有贵州省、江西省、湖南省和上海市。进一步研究发现长江经济带水资源承载力系统耦合协调度呈下降趋势。利用灰色关联模型发现产水模数、城市日均生活用水量、GDP增长率以及废水治理投资占比在各系统中对水资源承载力影响程度最大。总体来看，长江经济带水资源承载力处于中等水平，其原因可归结于人口压力大、产业结构不合理以及水资源利用率较低等，并据此提出了相应的对策建议。

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCE CARRYING CAPACITY OF YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE

This paper, based on provincial panel data from 2007 to 2016, uses TOPSIS to study the dynamic changes and regional variance of water resource carrying capacity of provinces along Yangtze River economic zone with results showing a slowly declining trend, mostly contributed by water resource sub-system and social sub-system. Water resource carrying capacity decreases toward the down-stream with Chengyu economic zone seating on the top from regional difference. Viewing from provinces, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Shanghai, Hu'nan, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hubei and Anhui are in a decreasing order. From spatial distribution, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Hu'nan and Shanghai bear the higher capacity. It is also of a falling coupling coordination. It is found that water production, urban daily water use, GDP growth rate and waste water handling investment proportion cast a large influence on water resource carrying capacity. Generally, water carrying capacity of Yangtze River economic zone is at a medium level probably due to large population, inappropriate industrial structure and low water recycling rate. Suggestions are presented accordingly.